It is quite frequent that we see debates as to which stat is “more important” for profitability. The irony is that they are ALL important.

There is a dynamic relationship between them, that —when combined successfully — can build a profitable trading system.

When asked “which one is more important” I always default to the same answer … well, that depends. Market conditions are dynamic, and ** most ** systems will **not** perform the same in different market conditions/regimes.

Trending market conditions behave differently than mean reversion market conditions.

Because of these differences, R:R ratio shifts.

• In a directional trending market — 1:1 RR is fine, especially when you’re trading in the direction of the trend.

• Typically you re able to risk off your trades sooner and B/E your stops without getting stopped out, because the path of least resistance is in the direction of the trend.

When you zoom out and take a look, the general direction is up.

You will see people say “everyones a good trader in a bull market”. This is because R:R ratio is typically on your side, and we are more likely to see continuations rather than mean reversion in this type of market regime.

• You can hit market buy at a breakout, set your stop to B/E and mange to be profitable.

• As soon as market conditions change, you will see things shift. Mass frustration— a system that was once profitable, now struggling to see any green days. Most trades ending up in B/E or small loss, which can result in tilt, and revenge trading.

In this article I will cover

Your Bankroll in Stops — The Math — Using a 50k Eval.

• Win Rate, Expectancy, and the Stats that Actually Matter.

What RR actually means

• Why better RR doesnt always me bigger profits

• Why Tighter Risk is Higher Opportunity, Not Low Reward.

• Understanding why variance matters, and the statistical case for taking more trades

Your Bankroll In Stops

In March of 2022 one small phrase that @jackgleason said during his Cabo Mastermind will end up sticking with me for the rest of my trading journey.

“Once you start thinking about the market in terms of stops and ATR terms it changes how you view the market”

… but what does that even mean ?

ATR — or Average True Range — is a measure of how much on average something moves over a given period of time

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For new subscribers—

I use Fibonacci sequences as the core of my analysis, combining mechanical levels with contextual zones drawn from auction theory.

Mechanical levels help me map out potential support, resistance, and distr…

Read more

For new subscribers—

I use Fibonacci sequences as the core of my analysis, combining mechanical levels with contextual zones drawn from auction theory.

Mechanical levels help me map out potential support, resistance, and distr…

Read more

For new subscribers—

I use Fibonacci sequences as the core of my analysis, combining mechanical levels with contextual zones drawn from auction theory.

Mechanical levels help me map out potential support, resistance, and dist…

Read more

We’re already selling off after I did this analysis.

Sorry guys i’m super tired today

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For new subscribers—

I use Fibonacci sequences as the core of my analysis, combining mechanical levels with contextual zones drawn from auction theory.

Mechanical levels help me map out potential support, resistance, and distribution zones so you can see where I expect buyers or sellers to step in

• I color‑code these levels so they’re easier to follow on your charts:

  • blue = potential discount zones (support),

  • purple = “line in the sand” levels I expect price to defend

  • red = premium zones (resistance / distribution)

If you find this useful, you can support my work in a few ways:

• Hit the like button and share this post with other traders.

• Buy me a coffee to help fuel more profiles and positionings

SaltStack is a reader‑supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Fuel the next ES/NQ breakdown ☕️

News for the week

• These are our red folder events for the week — no news Monday

JPY news prints for this week

Earnings

There is a little bit of divergence here off the open in ES and NQ —

so depending on what happens in the overnight session will kind of dictate the direction.

NK / 6J

where as nikkei gapped up and sold off. — but what’s interesting here is that 6J is holding a counter sequence off that high.

ES — recap

Here is what we were left with after last week

• fridays session had that pump off of the open followed by some consolidation as we went into the EOD

• looked like some distribution to me in the flow

  • This is important to keep in mind that distribution =/= price is going to necessarily sell off.

  • It means inventory is being distributed, and balance is forming, then we can watch for a rotation in either direction.

• Multiple unfilled gaps below — again that doesn’t mean we are going to fill them, it means there is poor structure below.

  • If sellers catch some steam you can look to play these gaps but I would also be cautious chasing price into these gaps.

NQ — recap

Completion of those upside targets in NQ. Similar to ES — poor structure below, and we closed above our premium levels.

with news prints this week we can expect some hedging / positioning on Mon so depending on the overnight action and where we open relative to prior days balance will change a bit of my levels.

I’ll try to get up early and send out some levels in the AM

SPX gamma

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For new subscribers—

I use Fibonacci sequences as the core of my analysis, combining mechanical levels with contextual zones drawn from auction theory.

Mechanical levels help me map out potential support, resistance, and distr…

Read more

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CL

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For new subscribers—

I use Fibonacci sequences as the core of my analysis, combining mechanical levels with contextual zones drawn from auction theory.

Mechanical levels help me map out potential support, resistance, and dist…

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The rates should already be priced in but you never know. It is powells last FOMC

• I will be live on YT tomorrow to watch the fed meeting, and Funded Futures Family has sponsored some accounts to giveaway which I will be doing on stream.

I do plan on partnering up with few companies, motivewave, jigsaw, and few firms. Once I find sponsor for content I will fully remove all paywalls and make everything free. But its a slow process lol

Read more

For new subscribers—

I use Fibonacci sequences as the core of my analysis, combining mechanical levels with contextual zones drawn from auction theory.

Mechanical levels help me map out potential support, resistance, and distribution zones so you can see where I expect buyers or sellers to step in

• I color‑code these levels so they’re easier to follow on your charts:

  • blue = potential discount zones (support),

  • purple = “line in the sand” levels I expect price to defend

  • red = premium zones (resistance / distribution)

If you find this useful, you can support my work in a few ways:

• Hit the like button and share this post with other traders.

• Buy me a coffee to help fuel more profiles and positionings

SaltStack is a reader‑supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Fuel the next ES/NQ breakdown ☕️

News for the week

• We have Fed rates on the schedule for the 29th

  • I’ll probably do a live watch party since everyone enjoyed it last time

• As you can see — other central banks will also have their monetary policy rates this week as well.

ES / NQ /

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NQ 2:14

ES 5:17

ES / market profiles - 8:33

SPX 0Dte / Gamma / Options - 12:45

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Time Stamps 
ES - 3:12 
NQ - 6:15 

Market profiles / TPO -11:39 

<< sorry I didnt realize it wasnt on the screen correctly lol >> 

Here are my composites for ES — we are currently inside of this multi day balance, and looks liek we are running into a bit of distribution as we retest the highs.

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For new subscribers—

I use Fibonacci sequences as the core of my analysis, combining mechanical levels with contextual zones drawn from auction theory.

Mechanical levels help me map out potential support, resistance, and distribution zones so you can see where I expect buyers or sellers to step in

• I color‑code these levels so they’re easier to follow on your charts:

  • blue = potential discount zones (support),

  • purple = “line in the sand” levels I expect price to defend

  • red = premium zones (resistance / distribution)

If you find this useful, you can support my work in a few ways:

• Hit the like button and share this post with other traders.

• Buy me a coffee to help fuel more profiles and positionings

SaltStack is a reader‑supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Fuel the next ES/NQ breakdown ☕️

Announcements

< Sorry guys !! I was moving last week, so mostly done, and going back to regular posting this week >

I have also switched my Nikkei Analysis to the OSE contract — due to differences in liquidity, I decided that this is better than using the CME /NKD.

News for the week

• No News Mon / Weds

  • red folder for the week will be Tuesday

  • looks like we also have Fed Chair Warsh testifying so that should be fun

• I do trade Nikkei, so I track JPY prints, nothing to crazy, manufacturing and national core CPI

» Next week we have Fed Rates, and BOJ rates, so should be interesting week given the fact the ceasefire has been potentially violated and the negotiation talks are falling thru.

Looks like priced in to just hold steady. I’m more curious to see whats going on w the new chair and how the market reacts to that.

ES /

Very strong trend this past week. Sad I was moving most of the week lol

• This is not a trend that I would really short,

  • when there is a strong momentum until something is showing us that the market is showing signs of weakness / momentum shift

I know it is tempting to short something like this, but there is literally nothing showing us there is weakness, so you have to keep that in mind and let go of a short bias or keep conservative targets in mind — otherwise you’re going to just eat stop after stop.

• It doesnt matter if the headlines are fake, if the cease fire will fail, none of that matters, only thing that matters is the activity of the market participants in REAL time.

• If buyers are in control w strong momentum, the price will go up until they are exhausted — if you try to ignore this and just fire in short you will get chopped up by SL

• Link to ToS chart

  » http://tos.mx/!Bdu65Jcs «

  

  So now, price action like this makes sense of how why I mark levels the way I do, and why I say “what is important is the activity of market participants in REAL TIME”

• as soon as we break AND HOLD above the LIS you see that those premium zones are getting blasted right thru.

• Anyone positioned short still at these levels become forced buyers as we break above adding fuel to that push to the upside.

  • Once we break and hold above that distribution zone at 24892 shorts are in danger with a strong push to the upside.

Read more

For new subscribers—

I use Fibonacci sequences as the core of my analysis, combining mechanical levels with contextual zones drawn from auction theory.

Mechanical levels help me map out potential support, resistance, and distr…

Read more

For new subscribers—

I use Fibonacci sequences as the core of my analysis, combining mechanical levels with contextual zones drawn from auction theory.

Mechanical levels help me map out potential support, resistance, and distribution zones so you can see where I expect buyers or sellers to step in

• I color‑code these levels so they’re easier to follow on your charts:

  • blue = potential discount zones (support),

  • purple = “line in the sand” levels I expect price to defend

  • red = premium zones (resistance / distribution)

If you find this useful, you can support my work in a few ways:

• Hit the like button and share this post with other traders.

• Buy me a coffee to help fuel more profiles and positionings

SaltStack is a reader‑supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Fuel the next ES/NQ breakdown ☕️

News for tomorrow

We have Japan PPI tonight

i’m curious to see what the print is, Japan imports nearly 100% of their crude, so given the situation with Iran we could see a surprise. This will likely affect BOJ policy decision April 27/28

• Tomorrow we have CPI and UofM

SPX Gamma Levels

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