1.25.26 | Weekly Levels | ES NQ BTC | Will the Fed Cut Rates ?
Big week ahead with Fed Rate decision on Wednesday -- Right now there is a 97% chance fed will hold.
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I use Fibonacci Sequences as the core of my analysis. I do implement both mechanical and contextual levels (from auction theory) in my analysis. I typically use mechanical levels to identify potential areas of support/distribution.
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Just a quick note—
I color code just so they are easier to read and understand, since there are alot levels with fibs.
Blue - potential discount zones (support levels)
Purple - zones I’m looking for price to defend, (line in the sand)
Red - premium zones (resistance / distribution zones)
News this week
No news monday
Our big one for the week will be Fed Rates on Wednesday
Then PPI on Fri
As you can see here — there is a 97% chance of — no change
So now were kind of in this limbo of ~ is the market pricing in for this ?
Will we see a surprise cut ? Who knows, there is still a 2.8% chance.
Earnings this week
Lots of earnings this week.
Notable earnings will be AAPL 0.00%↑ MSFT 0.00%↑ META 0.00%↑ TSLA 0.00%↑ IBM 0.00%↑
ES
I think the market is kind of waiting to see what happens with these rates.
We spent the majority of last week balancing out this poor structure that was put in from that gap down on Sunday.
We will know more after Wednesday — looking at the higher time frame you will see we struggling to have that significant break out of balance with a rotation higher.
We are just playing the game of — who loses steam first?
NQ
BTC — (I use btc futures)
Here in bitcoin we trade this extension long to its upside target of 98k followed by a sharp 12% reversal.
We start a short sequence and complete some of those downside ext target 85k — next ext target at 82k
To see a rotation higher we must see a break and hold above 95k in order to invalidate this current short sequence.
Anyways! Thats all I have going into the week, thanks for reading!