Commodity Outlook || CL - GC - HG || 06.02.26
Crude, copper, and gold — key levels and what the charts are showing. Is the top in for Crude finally?
For new subscribers—
I use Fibonacci sequences as the core of my analysis, combining mechanical levels with contextual zones drawn from auction theory.
Mechanical levels help me map out potential support, resistance, and distribution zones so you can see where I expect buyers or sellers to step in
I color‑code these levels so they’re easier to follow on your charts:
blue = potential discount zones (support),
purple = “line in the sand” levels I expect price to defend
red = premium zones (resistance / distribution)
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News for the week
Crude oil inventories tomorrow till give us a good idea of whats going on w Crude. If you trade crude ( or want to ) you are going to want to pay attention to CL inventories so you dont get caught with your pants down.
So — physical commodities move differently than indices. Thats an important distinction to keep in mind if you do venture out into other products aside from ES/NQ
Physical commodities are physically deliverable. So there is people out there, buying crude oil futures — because they actually want to accept the delivery.
Macro affects commodities and indices differently.
Also what drives price moves is also very different, indices are made up of a bunch of stocks, where as commodities are not.
These are more than just candles on a chart.
CL
Looking over where we’re at inside of structure, crude is hovering above that VAL of this multi week balance.
I have LIS 82.76 for crude, the bottom of this balance.
Downside targets near 70s if we have a break of balance to the downside.
Currently we are holding below the POC of this multiweek balance. of 96.28
GC
Multi week balance in GC forming out of this low that was put in in March.
Again — commodities move differently than indices.
We are forming this multi week balance in GC.
So you will want to be aware of where those LVN are and dont fight a rotation. Know what levels invalidate your thesis here.
Momentum to the downside here is starting to fade. That doesnt mean that price still wont break balance to the downside.
It just depends, are buyers getting exhausted? or is there no more inventory at this level, where price needs to rotate higher to find overhead supply?
we have a prominent LVN from about 4570- 4670 and the POC of this balance area 4711.
I would say an acceptance above the POC and that LVN would have potential to retest 4950-4980s for overhead supply
HG
I dont usually include Copper— But it plays an important role.
We run into a little bit of distribution here in HG — look below that balance area and have an impulse move to the upside.
Upside targets here for this sequence in HG is 7.10
LIS at 6.00
This is kind of a good example of what I mean when I say “distribution” doesnt always mean price is going to fall off a cliff.
There isn’t a significant excess put in at the bottom of this VAL of where the box is. Meaning there was potentially some buyers left below. Alot of these big institutions firms etc, buy / sell things quantitatively,
i’m going to go out on a limb and say they are not doing candlestick patterns here to buy/sell. Most of it is done quantitatively.
BUY at X price || Sell at Y price. etc
So as price breaks below that balance area we have to scenarios that can lay out
Look below and go — Break of balance to the downside.
Look below and fail — Where we peak below, clear up any resting liquidity below that poor low, and those buyers drive in impulse move to the upside.
Even though I’m using HG here — these concepts from Auction Theory can be applied to other market
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