ES NQ | Profiles and Positioning | Fib Levels | 2.8.26
Monster short covering rally Fri-- Takaichi's party wins supermajority in Japan lower house election. Japans go brRRRrrrrr
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I use Fibonacci Sequences as the core of my analysis. I do implement both mechanical and contextual levels (from auction theory) in my analysis. I typically use mechanical levels to identify potential areas of support/distribution.
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I color code just so they are easier to follow along and understand
Blue - potential discount zones (support levels)
Purple - zones I’m looking for price to defend, (line in the sand)
Red - premium zones (resistance / distribution zones)
News for the week
Busy week — NFP was originally on schedule for last week I believe but got pushed to this week.
So we have NFP Weds and CPI on Friday
For earnings we have
Tuesday
Before the bell
After the bell
Wednesday
Before the bell
After the bell
Thursday
After the bell
Friday
Side note — Japan Lower House Elections
Takaichi — Prime minister of Japan’s party won majority in the election
That means Japan go brrrrrrr r
Looks priced in if u ask me. I’m just a girl tho.
Is this sustainable ? » I’m not an economist but I feel like historically this hasnt gone so well, Japans debt to GDP is over 230%
Been reading about this over the weekend, godspeed. Looks like theyre ready to fire into tech (AI/Quantum/Semis), so we will see how this plays out.
Levels and Analysis for this week
ES
We saw a lot of selling pressure last week followed by a short covering rally on Friday.
Here we can see that ES did come down and trade a big key level at 6751 in the overnight session. Resulting in a short covering rally
We ended up rallying overnight out of this level. However — this level did not trade in the RTH.
Does it matter? I have no idea — but it did leave a big gap below.
Key levels in ES for tomorrow
So here in Globex we did open up near a key level I have — 6974.
This is where i’m monitoring for overhead supply.
In order to get a push higher I would want to see break and hold ABOVE 6974
Upside targets are 7004 | 7024 | 7049
Failure to maintain above LIS 6859
Downside targets will be
6833 | 6797 | 6748 | 6682
I honestly think it could go either way. This was a short covering rally — but we are still inside of range
That means as we approach the extremes of the range that puts us in ~mean reversion territory~
As we approach the top of the range sellers are also positioned to squeeze. So just keep your eye on the $VIX or /VX
NQ
I will post link to ToS charts in subscriber chat for premium subscribers.
GN ! Thanks for reading, Catch you guys later.
