ES Profiles and Positioning | 09.09.25 | Revisions
A little bit of a slow day, but range in ES was still pretty decent for some intraday moves. We have a big week ahead of us with CPI, PPI, 10y 30y Bond Auctions. We also have revisions Tomorrow 10AM.
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For those who are new,
I use Fibonacci Sequences as the core of my analysis. I do implement both mechanical and contextual levels (from market profiles) in my analysis. I typically use mechanical levels to identify potential areas of support/distribution.
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Just a quick note—
I color code just so they are easier to read and understand, since there are alot levels with fibs.
Blue - discount zones (support levels)
Purple - zones I’m looking for price to defend, (line in the sand)
Red - premium zones (resistance / distribution zones)
News
We dont have much on the schedule for tomorrow
API bulletin is good for if you trade CL 0.00%↑
We do have revisions tomorrow at 10AM
Courtesy of Signal Sigma you can check out their page there.
Quick Recap
Not really too much going on, we did open and move higher at globex open. You can expect some balancing and positioning being done as we head into PPI and CPI this week.
The range actually wasn’t too bad in terms of intraday trading.
I did take a short today from 6515 and then flipped it long at 6492, nice 20 pts or so
These days do require more patience to trade
Small range but still tradable.
You can se we did build some value you at the highs of today.
We opened above prior days balance, and were able to close above prior days balance.
Since it is a big week, going to include some options stats
Again i’m not an options expert, I know more than your average person, but due to the complexity of options, I am no where near an expert.
Check out AGtrader he is really good at SPX
Here is a link to this guy
$SPX
I use both SPX and SPY
Especially going into these heavy news weeks, you can see there was 7.3m contracts transacted today, and we have about 1m in OI on SPY
vs 3.7m transacted on SPX w 800k OI
We can observe a skew leaning towards puts.
For NQ traders, NQ is used to hedge for QQQs
No one trades $NDX
See for yourself
So if you notice something — see how many contracts are in SPX/SPY vs QQQ/NDX
That is the primary reason why ES is the most liquid product you can trade
This is why alot of people prefer to trade ES
Thanks for coming to my Ted Talk
As we can see here, ZB has just been ripping
This is important because rate cuts are this month
We are allegedly priced for 3 cuts this year
Until this happens IDC what they say
They will not unwind their hedges until the rate cuts actually happen
Now we also have this stagflation risk
CPI will be important
GC also ripping, does it mean something? Who knows forsure.
I just take mental note of these things.
CL is in a short sequence
Inventory reports Wednesday
Oil is expensive to store
If there is a surplus, and demand isnt increasing the price will go down
This is a consumable product, they can just produce more.
Going into tomorrow for ES
Since nothing really happened today, I have the exact same plan and levels as I posted yesterday.
Again — we have revisions tomorrow, we have no idea how the market is going to react to that.
Just set a timer and dont forget about it, better safe than sorry
If you see the VIX skyrocketing around 10AM you know why
What I’m looking for going into tomorrow
If ES holds above 6474
This has upside targets of 6520 | 6541 | 6563
Watching for break and hold above 6522 for invalidation of short sequence.
If we break and hold BELOW 6474
Downside targets 6479 | 6463 | 6444 | 6430
Important levels
LIS 6474
Break and hold above 6522 for upside targets
6520 | 6541 | 6563
Break and hold below 6474 for downside targets
6479 | 6463 | 6444 | 6430
Hope this helps, Trade safe you guys! Thanks for all your support.