ES Profiles and Positioning 7.29.25

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For those who are new, I use Fibonacci Sequences as the core of my analysis. I do implement both mechanical and contextual levels (from market profiles) in my analysis. I typically use mechanical levels to identify potential areas of support/distribution.

Review of Todays Price

I got some feedback saying that the text on the chart was preferred.

After that gap up at Globex open, we did hold a halfway back extension short at 6334 that completes 2/3 downside target\s, with one left below at 6403. We did consolidate after 2nd downside target followed by a short covering (that’s what it looks like).

There really isnt too much to go over today. Very narrow initial balance range, we cleaned up some of the poor structure that was left behind from last week.

Going into tomorrow

Since nothing significant really happened, majority of my levels remain the same, I did adjust the anchor to reflect todays RTH high for ES.

6321 is my line in the sand for a continuation higher. However, we would need to see some demand step in to fuel the momentum for a nice upside movement, otherwise we will run into the potential for distribution, as we approach premium levels (red zones) 6447 did trade during ETH but has not yet been tested during RTH.

Failure to hold above 6321 will target lower support levels 6405 (also final short target) and 6392.

» Bonus SPX Gamma Exp

I do like to be aware of where market makers are short/long gamma.

This wide distribution pattern we see in SPX puts I like to refer to as the “acceleration zone” (I made that up) as SPX falls dealers will hedge where they have gamma exposure, since it is spread wide, rather than dense (as seen on the left w calls) it will create a domino effect as they sell to hedge their positions.

Sometimes it will just rip thru these gamma levels, and then just rip right back up after cash settles.

It is the people who bought puts against the market makers, so we will see who wins, market makers would like to keep the price above 6375, because everything below that will expire worthless. Time decay is pretty brutal, so unless there is a dramatic move lower at the open, the majority of those premiums will just bleed out.

if you guys could drop a comment and let me know if you like me including SPX gamma positions, I can start to integrate that into some of my futures posts, or if it’s a bit overwhelming / confusing I can just omit it in future posts.

Levels

Upside targets
» 6447 | 6475 | 6505

Downside targets

» 6405 | 6392

Line in the sand

» 6421