ES profiles and positioning 8.14.25

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For those who are new, I use Fibonacci Sequences as the core of my analysis. I do implement both mechanical and contextual levels (from market profiles) in my analysis. I typically use mechanical levels to identify potential areas of support/distribution.

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(sorry I been a little MIA just dealing w life stuff)

Quick recap.

We are coming out of that NFP sell off. This is with ETH off.

These moves are a bit choppy and rough seeing some narrow ranges, with a bit of consolidation. With ETH turned on below.

We actually put in a new ATH in ES today. But we were within a ~20 pt range. Backing into a higher time frame series, we can see this move a little bit better. We still have PPI tomorrow, dont forget.

There is really not a lot of structure behind these moves. This is pretty tough to trade, even for me. You kind of just have to really stick to your levels, and not over trade. This is where contextual / supply and demand will help keep you out of trouble.

In ES, if you are able to consistently take nice clean 1R trades for 5-8 pts, that pays the bills.

You can see here on a tick chart just how choppy this move was, I was short this today from 6499.25 and did flip it long near 6472, but I was flat for 5pts on that trade. Im just not interested in this chop fest.

As the range starts to compress your RR for trades starts to decrease. This is why I use ATR, im watching for ATR expansion to provide confluence on my trade. If ATR is not expanding I will usually just gut the trade for 1ATR. I typically use the 5m ATR.

Going into tomorrow

Alot of how I observe the market is based off of feeling. You can see we are just chopping in this range from 6450- 6500. We did have some take profit at 6500 today it looks like. which is to be expected if the market doesnt pull back.

I assume that if we do push higher without a retest of some lower levels that we will have the potential to run into distribution at the highs, 6511 | 6529.

I would ideally like to see a retest of 6445, and a nice reaction at this level to confirm longs are entering. I am watching the reaction to see if we have the momentum for a continuation higher. A nice reaction to this level would target 6529.

Otherwise, I would be watching for a reaction at 6427 | 6431.

I want to see us hold above 6412 for a continuation higher. Dropping below 6400 will open us up to lower levels, 6372 | 6348 | 6320.

And if we fail to hold above 6340 I am going to be watching for lower demand levels 6220-6240 to potentially be retested.

As of right now, this level is holding, but that can always change. There is quite of bit to fill in. So it wouldnt be that crazy if we did just chop between 6414 and 6470 to balance out this profile.

Levels

Line in the sand
Hold ABOVE 6412 for continuation higher
Break BELOW 6340 for move lower.

Upside Targets

6520 | 6547 | 6569 | 6581* | 6617*

Downside targets

6454 | 6438 | 6420 | 6396 | 6327 | 6312 ** | 6281**

*/** with sustained buying / selling pressure