ES Profiles and Positioning | 8.15.25
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For those who are new, I use Fibonacci Sequences as the core of my analysis. I do implement both mechanical and contextual levels (from market profiles) in my analysis. I typically use mechanical levels to identify potential areas of support/distribution.
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Quick Recap of todays price session
We did dump after todays news dropped, right into that downside target of 6454 from yesterdays post. Very strong reaction to this level, and then a retest of 6490s for excess supply. There was some excess supply in this area, but price did fail to push lower. Nice movement out of that level, and a push higher. Showing price is acceptance at these levels.
I think this is also a good time to touch on why its not always a good idea to short during an uptrend.
As I back into a higher time frame series, you will see here that we are in an uptrend. If you did want to trade short you do need to consider ATR targets, or what areas hold potential for mean reversion. Even though today I did take a short when we retested the high, I was using 5m ATR as targets, with anticipation to flip long.
See I was long here, I actually reduced a bit of exposure, and ended up flat around 6489. Depending on the momentum I will adjust my TP targets.
A strong reaction to a contextual level is a bullish, until the “line in the sand” breaks for me. As of right now we are continuing to find acceptance at higher prices.
Going into tomorrow
I’m working on color coding it so its easier to just figure out what each level represents, if you follow along with my posts.
Red is going to be my premium levels, this is where I consider price to be expensive, usually these are levels i’m looking to exit longs. That doesnt mean go short. It just means not to chase longs into these levels. Or, if the movement runs out of steam, these levels carry potential for distribution .
Discount will be blue, these are areas of interest that I have for potential longs.
Purple is going to be my line in the sand levels, these are levels that I want to see us hold above, for continuation higher, or break below to open us up to lower levels.
Typically trading with the trend, is always going to be the less stressful trade. Of course, there are many different styles of trading, mean reversion, scalping etc. It just all depends on what style fits your goals. Dont forget, you can make a living just off of 1 or 2, 5-10pt trades a day.
The majority of my targets remain the same for tomorrow.
I want to see a hold above 6477 for a continuation higher. Failure to maintain above this level opens up to downside target 6463 | 6451 | 6443. If we are able to maintain this uptrend, I have targets above at 6505 | 6514 | 6526 | 6544.
It is normal and healthy for the market to pull back. I do not usually swap to bearish bias until market breaks AND holds below certain levels, and shifts into a bearish sequence.
I also color code my charts for myself, because I am visual person, but I do try to restrict the areas of execution to higher timeframe levels, there are typically more participants at this level, fueling better reactions. if you are initiating positions in the areas between these zones, there is the potential for choppy price action, as im sure you have experienced.
You see here we are just chopping in between this 50 pt range. so the close you are to the middle when opening a trade, the worse your RR becomes.
Hope that helps! Trade safe, we have retail news tomorrow.
Levels for Tomorrow
Line in the sand
ABOVE 6477 for continuation higher, upside targets
BELOW 6477 to retest lower levels, downside targets
Downside target
6463 | 6451 | 6443 | 6431*
Upside target
6505 | 6514 | 6526 | 6544**
*/** with sustained buying/selling pressure.