ES Profiles and Positioning 8.17.25

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For those who are new, I use Fibonacci Sequences as the core of my analysis. I do implement both mechanical and contextual levels (from market profiles) in my analysis. I typically use mechanical levels to identify potential areas of support/distribution.

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Quick recap of last weeks price —

We are currently in this 3 day balance in ES. WE had a pretty tight range during the RTH of about 30-40 pts. There really isnt too much to go over.

We had a break out of balance and a move up, and it appears that price is currently establishing value at higher prices.

The market is just storing energy for a move basically. Now we monitor for 2 scenarios, buyer exhaustion or seller exhumation. What confirms our bias, and what invalidates our bias? These are the two questions you should be asking yourself.

Going into the week

Going to be pretty straight forward I think —

As stated above, I will be monitoring for two scenarios — which participant will get exhausted and where will price go?

Institutional money is what drives the flow — what levels will they defend? and what level will they puke?

So here are my levels for ES.

I am monitoring to see if we defend 6457. If we do not, then I think we have the potential to see some liquidations.

If this happens I want to see longs step in and defend around 6445, currently the sequence that is holding has a downside target of 6450. In order to invalidate this sequence for a continuation higher, we will want to see a break and hold above 6490 for a continuation. This will open us up to upside targets 6415 and 6536.

In the event we break and hold below 6457, I will be monitoring for reaction at 6445 and 6432. If we see some sustained selling pressure, I will be watching for a reaction at 6420-6415.

If you are waiting for a pullback to go long, sometimes its better to monitor for a break of the sequence and lean in to go long with the continuation. This is where the term “dont try to catch a falling knife” comes from.

By using levels that hold higher potential for reaction, you can set alerts, or pay more attention as price approaches certain levels, rather than aimlessly staring at the chart. It does also help visualize — how much room does the market have the potential to move.

Levels

» Line in the sand — 6457 — I think this is going to be an important level to hold

Break and hold ABOVE — 6490 — for continuation higher

Break and hold BELOW — 6457 — to retest lower support levels

» Upside Targets
6508 | 6536 | 6567 | 6633

» Downside Targets
6447 | 6433 | 6421 | 6399

Have a safe week y’all! Thanks for reading.