ES Profiles and Positioning | 8/20/25

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For those who are new, I use Fibonacci Sequences as the core of my analysis. I do implement both mechanical and contextual levels (from market profiles) in my analysis. I typically use mechanical levels to identify potential areas of support/distribution.

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» Quick recap of todays price

Looks like we did get a break below the line in the sand, and a bit of liquidation. Resulting in a multi distribution day. It really isn’t super crazy, since there was a bit of poor structure left over from last weeks multi distribution day.

We completed quite a few downside targets as well. Then auctioned around this 6424 level and balanced out.

»Going into tomorrow

Were currently holding this extension short that targets 6402. Im going to pay attention to reaction at that level to see shorts cover.

We are currently holding a short sequence. So I will be monitoring 6451 | 6462 as a potential supply level, watching for distribution or exhaustion.

I want to see us break and hold above 6456 for a technical failure in the current short sequence/break of structure. And a break and hold above 6488 for continuation to the upside.

For me the most ideal scenario would be to watch for shorts cover, and then see longs enter. A break in structure/sequence would confirm this. This could be around 6370 but you never know. Dont forget — Vixperation is tomorrow. I feel like the volumes been kind of weak so we havent really been seeing those super strong mean reversions.

Going into tomorrows session, if we sell off a bit, I will be monitoring for responsive buying as we enter some discount levels, 6390 | 6370, if we rally higher, I would be monitoring for overhead supply, near 6445 | 6462.

Levels

» Line in the sand
» Break and hold ABOVE 6446 open us to upside targets.
» Break and hold ABOVE 6488 to invalidate current short sequence.
» Break and hold BELOW 6402 to target downside targets

» Downside targets
6410 | 6401 | 6378 | 6394 | 6370*

» Upside targets
6441 | 6462 | 6473 | 6488 | 6508 | 6540**

*/** under more extreme buying / selling

Just a side note, its not a bad idea to monitor the VIX, it can help avoid some bad trades.

Thanks for Reading! I am going to start writing some more articles, and adding in analysis for NQ, and maybe some stocks.