ES Profiles and Positioning | 8.21.25
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For those who are new, I use Fibonacci Sequences as the core of my analysis. I do implement both mechanical and contextual levels (from market profiles) in my analysis. I typically use mechanical levels to identify potential areas of support/distribution.
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Just a quick note — I am working on color coding just so they are easier to read and understand, the nature of fibs means that they come with an infinite number of mechanical levels, so I will highlight significant ones.
Blue - discount zones (support levels)
Purple - zones I’m looking for price to defend, (line in the sand)
Red - premium zones (resistance / distribution zones)
» Quick recap of todays session.
Going into RTH open london looked they were positioned net short, this is something I like to look for, because we have two ways something like this can play out. Either they will look to complete their targets, or they will fail to maintain price below a certain level and get liquidated.
We have a sell off and a rotation into around this level that I had mentioned yesterday — 6369. As volatility expands, we will see an ATR (average true range) expansion. Which is why I will use boxes around these levels, rather than the rigid level itself, we can expect some standard deviation with any buying/selling pressure.
Coming out of this low, ES trades a traditional a 6383 to target at 6411 — retests the 6383 and completes upper target 6426.
Similar response in NQ. if you do look at this initial 3421 level in NQ there is some buyers, but it is very weak in momentum and as we lose that level we flush to 3051.
» Going into tomorrow
I think tomorrow should be pretty straight forward for the most part.
I am watching for ES to reclaim above 6422. This will most likely be my line in the sand. As we approach 6332, and 6449 I am watching for an excess supply leftover in this zone. Keep in mind, when we have a sell off like this, price moves faster than it can distribute, leaving behind sellers with inventory.
As we approach these levels one of two things I watch for — velocity and momentum. if bulls step in to defend, price will move faster than sellers will be able to distribute at these levels — causing a squeeze. However— if price starts to stall as we approach these levels, supply starts to overwhelm demand and we will see price reverse.
If bears are unable to maintain price below 6472 then we have the potential to squeeze. Above us we still have an untested ATH that was put in the overnight session at 6508. This is another zone that carries potential for distribution.
If we do see bulls step in to defend, we have upside targets at 6472 | 6508 | 6563**
If we are unable to invalidate this current short sequence, we have potential to test lower support levels — downside targets at 6329 | 6295 | 6276 | 6221*
Here you see we do have another purple zone at 6338-6329, failure to maintain this level opens up these lower targets of 6276 | 6221 to act as potential support.
When you are trying to counter trade a sequence or fade a trend — for example a short sequence,
It is very hard to nail those lows, unless you are very good at combining levels with order flow, otherwise you are trying to catch a falling.
As shorts cover, and price fails to make a new low, you can start to lean in and trade with the change of structure. But keep in mind, until all overhead inventory is exhausted, a sell off like this always carries potential for distribution as we rally back into these areas that previously sold off.
Levels
Line in the sand — 6422
Break and hold ABOVE 6449 for upside targets
Break and hold BELOW 6338 for downside targets
Upside Targets
6472 | 6508 | 6563**
Downside Targets
6329 | 6295 | 6276 | 6221*
*/** with sustained buying / selling pressure.
Hope this helps! Thanks for reading.