ES Profiles and Positioning 8.28.25

Volatility Expansion -- NVDA earnings -- Unemployment Claims

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For those who are new, I use Fibonacci Sequences as the core of my analysis. I do implement both mechanical and contextual levels (from market profiles) in my analysis. I typically use mechanical levels to identify potential areas of support/distribution.

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Just a quick note — I am working on color coding just so they are easier to read and understand, the nature of fibs means that they come with an infinite number of mechanical levels, so I will highlight significant ones.

Blue - discount zones (support levels)

Purple - zones I’m looking for price to defend, (line in the sand)

Red - premium zones (resistance / distribution zones)

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Quick Recap of Todays Session

RTH

ETH

Starting with the overnight action — London appears to be net short going into NY open. It is common to think we will get a continuation, some times we do, but more often than not, London is looking to use NY open as exit liquidity.

So you also have to keep in mind the cash market doesnt trade in the overnight session, so typically unless alot of contracts are traded in the overnight session I take the overnight action with a grain of salt.

We open below previous days close, but above balance — This is where patience is rewarded, as we run into a bit of pinning in that 6490-6495 area, we retest the demand area which provides a beautiful entry opportunity, completing upside targets.

Going into NVDA 0.00%↑ Earnings we have a pop into that premium level, and the we do see a dump — just shy of downside target — 5453.

Regardless of news — overall i’ve observed it doesnt really change where true supply and demand is waiting. We can see responsive buying and selling in both of these target levels.

Going into Tomorrow

We have unemployment claims tomorrow — and Core PCE on Friday.

ETH

RTH

So we have had some of these zones tested in the overnight session — however some of them have yet to be tested during RTH, this is something I do keep in mind.

Right now we are resting in this inbetween zone after NVDA earnings. So depending on what the overnight action and unemployment claims looks like I will adjust my plan accordingly.

I would like to see ES hold above 6456 for a continuation higher. This will be my line in the sand. We did see some responsive buying step in and defend this after the dump caused by NVDA earnings.

Depending on how London positions themselves I foreshadow one of two scenarios playing out, we have a potential rotation back up into value, and hold above 6456 for a continuation higher. Targeting the untested ATH of 6508, and upside targets 6527 6538.

Or — If London positions themselves short and gains some traction, we could see potential rotation lower to retest lower levels of support, if we are unable to maintain above 6456, downside targets are 6448, 6430, 6414.

VPOC has shifted above where friday has established value. So we are building value at these higher levels. Only time will tell. I like to use expanded TPO because it really helps remove the noise and see how the market has moved for the session. Its always good to be prepared for both scenarios.

Levels

Line in the sand 6456

Upside Targets
6495 | 6508 | 6516 | 6527 | 6538

Downside Targets
6448 | 6430 | 6414

Trade safe everyone thanks for reading !