ES Profiles and Positioning | 8.29.25

SP500 makes new ATH, market makers got a little squeezey, PCE tomorrow.

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For those who are new, I use Fibonacci Sequences as the core of my analysis. I do implement both mechanical and contextual levels (from market profiles) in my analysis. I typically use mechanical levels to identify potential areas of support/distribution.

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Just a quick note — I am working on color coding just so they are easier to read and understand, the nature of fibs means that they come with an infinite number of mechanical levels, so I will highlight significant ones.

Blue - discount zones (support levels)

Purple - zones I’m looking for price to defend, (line in the sand)

Red - premium zones (resistance / distribution zones)

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Quick Recap of Todays Session

ETH

RTH only

We did have a dump after $NVDA earnings. For anyone who’s not super familiar they do have quite a large market cap. Their P/E was already a bit high, at about 59 or so I believe, so the companies revenue does need to justify such a high market cap.

Levels worked out absolutely gorgeous today, open out of balance runs into distribution and bulls step in to defend, I feel like I havent seen a day like this in a while, hopefully you were able to trade some of those continuations !

Anyways, we do see in the first chart that market does rotate down into that 6460 zone. Where responsive buying steps in, and we are back up above where the prior day closed.

We open near the top of value, have a quick opening drive up that is rejected and rotates back down into VAL of prior day. This does turn into a trend day, closing at new ATH.

Bulls defend our downside targets, we did see a bit of consolidation as we push into ATH territory, with sellers trying to defend, but ultimately end up getting squeezed, with ES reaching 6523 for HOD.

Here is a good example of gamma pinning, as $SPX approaches that 6500 call wall for the day, we can see that price in ES spent almost an hour inside of this tight range of, you can see the amount of contracts traded is substantial. These are 7 renko bars.

Pretty heavy absorption in those candles.

This was the $VIX today. Unless we had a severe VIX spike I wasnt really looking to go short today, it just didnt match the move, I encourage you to learn about the VIX if you do not know how to utilize it.

Going into tomorrow.

This is what levels I’m looking at for tomorrow.

here is ETH —

Right now we are holding this extension in ETH, keep in mind the cash market is not open in the overnight session, so unless there is a significant amount of contracts traded I only really use it for London’s positioning.

We do have core PCE tomorrow, so keep that in mind, the print is at 730 EST. Right now, bulls have defended those lower targets, and VIX looked good today, so unless something changes, or we have a bad print, I will be monitoring for continuation of this sequence.

Right now we are holding this extension, if it does complete its target in the overnight session, I would just be cautions if we open above VAH, looks like we have some value established near the highs, and we did close near the high.

What i’m looking for

In order for a continuation — keep in mind we need to have fresh demand enter in order to fuel that continuation higher.

So that leaves us with a few scenarios as we approach the day.

If we grind higher, we face the potential for distribution as we retest the ATH, and upside targets 6527. Which in an aggressive technical sequence, it wouldnt be crazy to hold an aggressive technical sequence like that, but we need the volume and velocity to ramp up to hold aggressive extensions.

Since it is holding for now, I will leave it, looking to hold above this 6509 to maintain this current sequence. Targeting 6527 | 6531 | 6541 | 6560 above us.

In the event this starts to lose some steam, I have downside support at 6505 and 6494. I would like to see us defend 6483, and maintain above 6474 for a continuation higher. 6474 will be my line in the sand for tomorrow.

In the event we run into distribution and sellers do gain some steam, and we break and hold below 6474, I have downside targets at 6461 | 6443 | 6426.

There is also always the possibility we just chop around, you never know. Its always good to be prepared for multiple scenarios, and look at price to see what the market is telling you, not what you want to see. The hardest part (even for me) is patience.

You dont want to chase price and this week was a very good example of what I mean when I say “be cautious chasing longs into premium zones” and “shorts into discount zones”. If we hold too long we lose the opportunity to exit our position, remember at the end of the day, we’re day traders.

Levels

Line in the sand
6474

Upside Targets
6527 | 6531 | 6536 | 6555

Downside targets
6509 | 6505 | 6501 | 6495 | 6483

Thanks for Reading! Hope this helps, Looks like we might have a 3 day weekend ! So I’m might have some time to put together some non ES related articles. Trade safe you guys!