ES Profiles and Positioning 8.3.25
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For those who are new, I use Fibonacci Sequences as the core of my analysis. I do implement both mechanical and contextual levels (from market profiles) in my analysis. I typically use mechanical levels to identify potential areas of support/distribution.
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Going over last weeks price action
with the increase of volatility there will be a little bit more to go over
It was a bit of an anomaly this week, pretty typically NFP doesnt end up being anything too unexpected. But in this case we did see some revisions to May and June reports.
Zooming in a bit, with ETH turned off, we see some consolidation around 6420. I was a feeling a bit under the weather last week, so I did miss a bit of divergence which I have marked in the chart above.
We see a big spike in momentum at a higher time frame extension profit target 6050, followed by a failure of the trend. This break of structure shifts us into a new sequence.
Friday RTH opens with a big gap down upon NFP news. Market doesnt like being caught off guard. During this session a short extension (6295) does trade, however it does not reach its profit target at (6219). We kind of just balanced out between a smaller time frame short extension and a higher time frame long extension.
Going into next week
This is where fibs can get a bit more complex, because there is potential to move both directions (realistically there always is)
But just looking at the flow of this sequence, you can see that the smaller time frame short sequence is currently the dominant sequence.
We have a mix of mechanical AND contextual levels below us. Which means as you approach these levels there is potential for mean reversion. There is no anticipating which downside targets will come into play until you are able to see the velocity and momentum in the moment.
My best advice is always to wait for shorts to take profit and cover, look for a break in structure and trade with the trend. If you see a tight range, you can scalp the range, but dont get diced up executing in the middle of the range.
You will want to be cautious approaching any premium or discount zones / levels (red premium / blue+green = discount). The goal is to sell for a premium and buy at a discount. Chasing into these levels can get you caught in a mean reversion. If you’re a day trader, then the point is to close the trade for a profit — dont forget that.
Levels going into the week
Line in the sand
Hold BELOW 6340 for continuation to the downside
Break ABOVE 6379 for continuation to the upside
Break BELOW 6170 opens up downside targets 6100 | 6090
Downside targets
6226 | 6170 | 6155 | 6100** | 6090**
Upside targets
6326 | 6353 | 6418 | 6455 | 6475**
(**under extreme buying/selling pressure)