ES Profiles and Positioning | 9.17.25 | Unemployment Claims
Was the market already priced in for FOMC? Will we get the fuel for a continuation higher, or do we need to retest downside support before making a drive up
For new subscribers—
I use Fibonacci Sequences as the core of my analysis. I do implement both mechanical and contextual levels (from market profiles) in my analysis. I typically use mechanical levels to identify potential areas of support/distribution.
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Just a quick note—
I color code just so they are easier to read and understand, since there are alot levels with fibs.
Blue - discount zones (support levels)
Purple - zones I’m looking for price to defend, (line in the sand)
Red - premium zones (resistance / distribution zones)
Quick recap
There really wasnt too much going on this past week in ES. We do have quarterly OPEX this week. You just want to keep that in mind.
Looks like we did fill a majority of that rollover gap, but not quite all of it. I probably would have felt a little more confident had we filled that entire gap before snapping back.
Just a rule of thumbs, as you can see I use the ATR to size risk, we are closing at a 15pt ATR on the day, which equates to $787 of risk per contract.
I don’t believe in static sizing, you will want to size according to range, that way you can size down in real time to accommodate for an increase in volatility.
Dynamic sizing allows you to adjust to the expansion in volatility, so you can size down and widen stops, without increasing exposure.
We are basically flat on the day. So we will see in the overnight action whats happening, and tomorrow which way the market decides to move.
Going into tomorrow
Pretty straight forward going into tomorrow I think
1 of 2 things will happen, either we go up or down…. seems simple? Right??
If we make a run up first, we have a potential for distribution as we approach the highs. 6692 | 6705 | 6754
If sellers pick up some steam, I’m monitoring for a retest of downside support at 6602 | 6589 | 6573
Ideally I would like to see us hold above 6545 this will be my LIS
If we break and hold BELOW 6545 then we have potential to test some lower levels of support 6503 | 6466
I’m going to watch and wait for a market to find a direction first, and I think after this week is over we will have a better idea as to what to expect moving forward.
Thanks for reading!
I was taking it a bit easy, since I wasnt expecting much to happen heading into FOMC.
Trade safe!