ES Profiles and Positioning | 9.17.25 | FOMC -- Blast off w Rate Cuts? Or Will We See a Top?
Looks like we are expecting a 25 bps cut, but people are speculating a potential 50 bps cut. Going over ES YM RTY NQ
For new subscribers—
I use Fibonacci Sequences as the core of my analysis. I do implement both mechanical and contextual levels (from market profiles) in my analysis. I typically use mechanical levels to identify potential areas of support/distribution.
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Just a quick note—
I color code just so they are easier to read and understand, since there are alot levels with fibs.
Blue - discount zones (support levels)
Purple - zones I’m looking for price to defend, (line in the sand)
Red - premium zones (resistance / distribution zones)
Sorry I been kinda taking it a little bit easy, I typically dont expect anything too crazy going into FOMC
Quick recap + plan for tomorrow
Going into tomorrow
ES
SPX
Options Chains
So I’m not an expert in options, I just know enough to glance and get the gist of it.
Going into FOMC tomorrow we see very heavy hedging in SPY and SPX
QQQs have less of a skew, but still leaning towards puts
IWM - which is the Russell actually is skewed towards calls
Rates will effect small caps more since they typically operate with higher debt-to-income ratio
I am most likely not looking to trade a ton tomorrow, maybe look for few set ups in GC or CL — but I am most likely not trading FOMC, I would rather wait and see how the market reacts.
SPX
