ES Profiles and Positioning | NFP | 8.1.25
Brief post, sorry!
Quick recap — Yesterdays session we did open out of balance, after a rally up into a new ATH in the overnight session, followed by a sell off with a clean technical downtrend.
This is what I have going into today, sorry i’m not feeling great today, but i’ll still post some levels. We do have NFP today, so I will most likely just wait and see what happens during the initial balance (first 30m-1hr)
If we go straight up out of the open, I would be cautions to watch for shorts re-entering. If we go straight down out of the open I would be cautions for short covering + mean reversion.
I also wouldnt be shocked if we just balance down here. I am watching to see if we are able to get back up into prior days balance, OR if price accepts value lower.
This type of action has potential to move fast and whippy due to news today. This is not a good day to chase. When we approach mean reversion zones BE CAUTIOUS and wait for confirmation.
You do not want to chase shorts as price dips too low, you have the potential to get caught in a nasty short covering and mean reversion.
My advice would be to watch for a cooperating vix. If price is rising, and vix is not falling, that is something to be cautious about, and vice versa.
Trade safe yall! Sorry for a short / late post.