FOMC Pre-Market Levels ES 7.30.25
FOMC today!
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For those who are new, I use Fibonacci Sequences as the core of my analysis. I do implement both mechanical and contextual levels (from market profiles) in my analysis. I typically use mechanical levels to identify potential areas of support/distribution.
We do have some news today, FOMC. Institutional positioning is always hedged going into news events like this, so we will see what happens after they unwind their hedges and the market can breathe a bit.
Review of yesterdays price
By the end of the RTH session ES did meet all of its final downside targets for this short sequence. Eventually bouncing off of 6397 which is a fib retracement level from a higher time frame long sequence.
Any time we rally without a proper retracement, we increase our potential to be met with distribution as we approach premium levels. Since it is a less desirable price for longs (premium level) there is less demand to buy at higher prices. As momentum fades so does conviction. The movement loses steam and then we are met with a mean reversion.
As we see there was little to no demand stepping in yesterday. Shorts do cover out of the low, but there is very little participation in the long side as of now.
There is news today, might just be a wait and see.
Going into today
Looks like a distribution pattern near the high (for reference, distribution/accumulation is just adding a bias to a period of consolidation)
My short term/mid term bias is neutral, I do want to wait and see the market find a direction. Since there is tariff headlines, trade deals, FOMC, the ambiguity and uncertainty can cause this stalemate.
I will now be watching for us to hold above 6385. Ideally a deeper retracement to 6360 | 6340 gives more opportunity for initiative/responsive buyers to step in, giving us more fuel for a continuation higher.
Technical failure of this sequence will be at about 6385. Confirming longs are no longer in control of this smaller time frame sequence.
This is where fibs can get tough because there are infinite mechanical levels that can be drawn.
I use the velocity of the counter sequence to try and project which levels might come into play, but of course you never know. All of us are just making our best predictions at the end of the day.
If we fail to hold ABOVE 6385, I will assume that the short term short sequence is dominant, and I will shift to looking for that sequence to complete its targets, before anticipating a mean reversion.
I will be looking for lower zones 6300-6317 to act as support. However, inability to maintain above 6283 will make me sit on hands with longs. If this happens I will be watching for lower levels 6204-6220 as support.
In the event none of the above levels hold, below I have is 6155-6170. If there is not a strong participation or a break of these levels, I will reconsider my long term bias.
SPX 0DTE positioning going into today
Near ATM
For this I just look at the ratio, and distribution patterns.
As always, trade safe! Just remember we never really know what the market is or isnt going to do. If you did enjoy this post and want to support it by liking it, that is greatly appreciated!