Tech just got hit on earnings, and NQ is sitting right on a level that decides the next leg.
quick note before we get into it: i’ve been quiet for a bit with some personal stuff, but i’m moving back on a regular schedule. If you’re new here, welcome. I’m salti, I trade ES, NQ and crypto perps, and this is where I break down structure, news and levels :-)
Structurally a more fair value established here in ES than NQ. And it is holding a bit stronger
ES: Where we are inside structure
Price is rotating back into the VAH (value area high) of the prior balance.
From there, it looks like we’re coming down to test the POC (point of control) at 7438.
That level is still more than 100 handles below us.
ES: What I’m watching for
How price reacts if we come down and test the POC at 7438.
An unfilled gap below at 7511
Poor structure below, from about 6500 to 7000.
Poor structure means a sloppy auction that price likes to come back and repair. In this case price moved quickly through this area, not giving opportunity for price to distribute properly
ES Where we are inside structure
Ranges expansions coming out of the overnight session.
Price is still staying inside the extremes of this multi-distribution profile.
Looking at this composite market profile, you can see that as we rotate up into the highs, we do run into a bit of distribution.
That’s followed by rotation lower.
What I’m watching for
Whether price starts to reclaim some of these levels, or if we need to rotate lower to find more buyers.
If we rotate lower, we’d be monitoring for exhaustion of inventory at these levels.
That would mean we have to rotate a little bit higher to find more sellers and retest overhead supply.
As we’re in this sequence, proceed with caution if you’re going to take a counter trend trade
You want to see some confirmation.
That means the trend continuing, with price accepting and building value
Then proceed with caution as we come up into some of the upside targets, i.e. value area highs above us.
Monitor for potential overhead supply and distribution so you don’t get caught off guard.
CL: Where we are inside structure
Crude sold off a bit when news of a deal with Iran came out.
Price looks like it’s rotating back into the VAH (value area high) of the prior balance.
CL: What I’m watching for
If the Iran deal holds, my downside targets are 88 and 82.
If there’s no deal, crude could head back up into the 100s.
For now it’s up in the air, so I’m letting price shake out a bit first
For new subscribers—
I use Fibonacci sequences with auction theory to map out where buyers and sellers should step in.
Blue = discount zones (support)
Purple = line in the sand
Red = premium zones (resistance / distribution)
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News for the week
Elections this week and Friday we will have NFP
Earnings + news this week (CT)
Apple is the big one, and it reports tonight after the close. AMD on Tuesday night is the other major NQ mover.
Mon 11/2, after close: Apple ($AAPL) and Palantir ($PLTR).
Tue 11/3, after close: AMD ($AMD). This is the semis report to watch.
Wed 11/4, before open: Uber ($UBER) and McDonald’s ($MCD). It’s the busiest day of the week, with about 240 companies reporting.
Fri 11/6, 7:30 AM: the October jobs report. It’s the main ES mover that day.
Earnings can move price fast after the bell, so size down and let the levels do the work.
Thanks for reading SaltStack.
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Not financial advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. For education only.