Market Outlook -- ES NQ GC CL | 5.26.26
All time highs. New Fed Chair. War in the Middle East. Yields soaring -- No big deal. Everything is fine.
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I use Fibonacci sequences as the core of my analysis, combining mechanical levels with contextual zones drawn from auction theory.
Mechanical levels help me map out potential support, resistance, and distribution zones so you can see where I expect buyers or sellers to step in
I color‑code these levels so they’re easier to follow on your charts:
blue = potential discount zones (support),
purple = “line in the sand” levels I expect price to defend
red = premium zones (resistance / distribution)
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Housekeeping —
I been taking some time off, so this will be my first newsletter in a while! I do have some other articles i’m working on as well. Unfortunately since I dont just AI slop stuff together it does take me more time hehe.
News for the week
Light week for news prints
Market outlook
10Y VX
Nice reversion in VX and 10Y
10Y was approaching that tariff high from last year. It is crazy to see market at ATH and yields this high, but it is what it is.
Looking at cash market SPX
We were in this multi month distribution that kind of started in Oct 25, rotated into downside support at 6300 in April and really just took off resulting in a 20% move.
N225 / 6J
Nikkei 225 printing new ATH while 6J getting absolutely obliterated
worth mentioning that Japan Yields are soaring, however the market doesnt really seem to care much.
ES
You can see the sequence that traded on the daily here, we held this 50% at 6359 and ripped straight thru that first upside target.
Next HTF target is at 7653
Looking at this sequence — kind of an interesting profile that developed today.
We have this multi distribution profile that formed, it starte off as almost like a multi dist/ slight b shape, bottom heavy during first half of the session.
Then developed into a bit of a more balanced profile, however we closed in value slightly below the mid.
VPOC for the session was near the lows, but I did notice it shift higher after lunch
What i’m watching for
migration of value higher, holding above this VAH and continuing to build value above 7544 — we have a little bit of upper distribution here.
Upside targets 7563 | 7590
Failure to maintain above 7501, I would watch for retest of downside support
Downside targets 7482 | 7462 | 7431
I dont think that revisiting this prior balance area is completely out of question if we don’t see buyers step in.
Pull backs into downside support create better buying opportunities for market participants to position themselves. As we keep drifting higher without any significant pullbacks, the probability of distribution will increase.
That doesnt mean yolo short ATH, it means be cautious chasing longs. This type of market rewards patience more than anything
NQ
NQ coming up on completion of that extension target above for this sequence.
I really try my best to keep everything clean and easy to read. Thats whats tough with fibs is that you can draw like a million ratios, and it can get messy quick lol
Here in NQ — we have some consolidation at the high today with unfilled gap + poor structure below us
Again, that doesnt mean full port OTM puts that means be aware of this structure below, since it can be a magnet/vacuum for price if we see some downward pressure.
CL
Oil is inside of this multi week balance, as of now we are holding this sequence off of the last swing high.
We are just ping ponging between VAH and VAL of this balance area.
If this sequence holds, downside target is at 83.44 | 75.30
We will see, I would just be cautious since we are retesting this VAL of this mutli week / month balance.
I haven’t really been paying attention to whats been going on w the war so I have no idea if its over or not.
GC
Multi week balance in GC — looks like we ran into some overhead supply above. And we are now retesting the VAL of this distribution area.
One thing I’ve noticed w GC is it does tend to go thru longer periods of balance. So I would be curious to see what happens here.
All products kind of move in their own way.
GC tends to form these mini auctions like this, followed by a rotation.
So we have a bunch of these mini auctions inside of a bigger multi month balance area that has been building.
I am curious whether we see a rotation back up into over head supply or if we break below the bottom of this balance and see a rotation lower.
My Line in the sand for GC is about 4312
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