Pre-market Profiles and Positioning | ES 7.31.25
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For those who are new, I use Fibonacci Sequences as the core of my analysis. I do implement both mechanical and contextual levels (from market profiles) in my analysis. I typically use mechanical levels to identify potential areas of support/distribution.
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Quick Review of Last Session
Today was FOMC and as we all anticipated there will be no rate cuts (not shocking)
We did finally have some good moves, if you read my post this morning, I did think that a move down to 6360s was warranted for a move higher.
We had a very tight range in the morning up until the meeting. We chopped around and consolidated, and there was potential for a short sequence from ETH high, since there was no technical failure one could consider that sequence to be valid.
We ran into overhead supply followed by a bit of break in liquidity to 6366. This is what I call a double fib zone, just because we have a smaller time frame profit target — short sequence, accompanied by a higher time frame retracement entry — long sequence. Since this is a double target, it has the potential for a very strong mean reversion. Which is what happened. ES is currently at 6450s in ETH.
This is a very clean recovery out of the low, 3200t chart.
Also — A full trade deal was reached with S. Korea. 300bln in investments is huge for the economy.
Going into today
I did wait until this morning to review ETH, sometimes it is significant sometimes it is not. I’m not necessarily anticipating a massive move lower today, since responsive buying stepped in for a nice V shape recovery yesterday defending 6360.
My short sequences have been invalidated during ETH but NOT during RTH, so I would like to see us hold above 6440 to confirm that technical failure during RTH.
I am looking to see if this overnight price action will remain. We bounced off of a higher time frame fib sequence around 6370s. This sequence’s target is above at 6494
We are holding some extensions from the overnight session at 6450, if this continues to hold this target is above at 6476. I also have targets at 6505 | 6555.
In the event this extension does not hold I would anticipate a pullback to about 6427-6433. I would like to see us hold above 6421, for a move higher today, or else I would expect 6401-6410 to act as support.
Although I dont anticipate a retest of the retracement at 6372, it is always a possibility to retest these lower levels of support. 2nd test of a support level is still valid, and it isnt until the 3rd test that I feel a bit sketch when taking a trade.
Support levels for this sequence are at 6392 | 6372
As I stated earlier, my bias overall is bullish, if shorts take over a smaller time frame sequence, I will shift towards a neutral bias, while I wait for them to take profit and get shaken out, but as you can see, once we come into higher time frame contextual / mechanical levels, the reaction is very strong. This is a good confirmation that the higher time frame long sequence is still dominant. As we continue higher, shorts that did not cover will become forced buyers.
Levels for today
Line in the sand
6421
Upside targets
6475 | 6505 | 6538 | 6557
Downside targets
6433 | 6401 | 6393 | 6376
As always, trade safe! Just remember we never really know what the market is or isnt going to do.