Profiles and Positioning E-Mini S&P500 7.20.25
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For context, for those who are unfamiliar fibonacci sequence levels are mechanical levels, and I implement both mechanical levels and contextual levels (from auction theory) in my analysis. I typically use mechanical levels to project price targets and potential areas for distribution.
I also use fibs to also identify technical failures in trends to add an additional layer of confluence.
Review of last weeks price
We chopped around a bit in a ~ 100 pt range between 6240s-6350s. We had an impulse move up, where price did reject the first test of 6340s. Looks like we ran into some distribution, followed by a liquidation to retest 6240 POC.
Looks like initiative buyers steps in at 6240. Resulting in a strong shift in the sequence upon retest of this level, and as of Fridays session, it is holding.
Going into next week
Weekly POC is below us at 6305, and there is thin volume and poor structure between 6310s-6330.
For a continuation higher, I would like to see a retest of 6315 before making a move higher to repair some of this poor structure. 6305 will be my line in the sand that bulls need to defend.
Upside targets at 6560/ 6375 / 6385* / 6421*
There is still a potential for distribution as we approach these premium zones 6360 / 6380. You will always want to proceed with caution when chasing longs into these zones.
on the flip side
Failure for bulls to maintain above 6305/6310 would target deeper retracements to 6290/6280.
6260 will be my line in the sand, inability for bulls to defend this level, would be a technical failure in the sequence.
Downside targets 6240 / 6228 / 6172
Levels
Line in the sand
6305 for push higher
6260 for push lower
Potential Chop Zones
6330-6350
6305-6320
6280-6290
Upside Targets
6560/ 6375 / 6385** / 6421**
Downside Targets
6240 / 6228 / 6172*
** higher time frame fib targets can pose a higher chance for distribution, just to be aware, and watch for reaction when price approaches these levels.
*there is a target and single print at this level, posing a potential for a mean reversion when price approaches this level.