Profiles and Positioning ES 07.13.25

This will mainly be just fibs, meaning these are mostly mechanical levels. I utilize both mechanical and contextual levels in my analysis.

Contents
- Review of last weeks price action
- What I am looking for going into next week
- Important levels

Review of last weeks price action

Hi 6335.5
Lo 6246.25
Range 87.93 pts

In ES last week Globex opened with a gap up, we ran into some overhead excess supply at 6310s followed by a sell off. Finding support from a higher time frame (HTF) fib series that initiated on 6.25 that traded at 6246 and 6267.

We were met with distribution as we retested the previous weeks high. We held 6270s holds as support from a fib series initiated out of Mondays lo. As of now this sequence is holding.

Since we are holding higher time frame long setups, my bias is bullish.

Fibonacci sequences operate with a lot of mechanical levels, so my levels are color coded for me to distinguish between the levels and their significance, its overwhelming at first, but you get used to it ;)


Going into next week.

My long term bias is bullish, but my short term bias is currently neutral. I want to see the market find a direction.

We closed in between discount levels / premium levels, which I refer to as the “danger zone” since price can move in either direction, and has potential to move fast thru this zone. These are areas I anticipate high liquidity, with high probability of accumulation/distribution.

I exercise caution chasing shorts below discount levels, and longs above premium levels.

As we break and hold (key word being hold) above my premium levels, I am not interested in initiating shorts w/o a structural shift or change in sequence, since it would indicate a strong market to break and hold above these levels.

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Im watching for a break and hold above 6320s for an invalidation/technical failure of the current sequence, for a continuation higher.
> Upside targets at 6355 and 6373 (with sustained momentum)

OR

Break and hold below 6260 for invalidation of the HTF sequence, opening up the potential for a retests of lower support levels 6240 ,6220 and 6170s

There is also potential for us to just chop between these levels until market finds a direction


Important levels

Line in the sand
6320
- for continuation higher and with potential to complete targets

6260
- break below i’m watching for retest of lower support levels.

Downside targets
6240 / 6220 / 6170

Upside targets
6355 / 6373 / 6389 / 6421

Trade safe you guys!