Weekly Market Analysis and Levels | ES NQ | 3.29.26
S&P at a 7-month low, Brent at $110, the market is pricing in a lot at once. When the macro breaks and the missiles fly — reading structure through the noise
For new subscribers—
I use Fibonacci sequences as the core of my analysis, combining mechanical levels with contextual zones drawn from auction theory.
Mechanical levels help me map out potential support, resistance, and distribution zones so you can see where I expect buyers or sellers to step in
I color‑code these levels so they’re easier to follow on your charts:
blue = potential discount zones (support),
purple = “line in the sand” levels I expect price to defend
red = premium zones (resistance / distribution)
Levels are meant to be used in combination with actions of market participants in real time. These are not signals.
My goal in my newsletter is to publish my research / thoughts.
Hopefully, helping expand how you think, lead you to knew thoughts, and thru that you are able to build your own framework in how you view the market.
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News for the week
Loaded schedule this week
Powell on the mic Monday
Jolts on Tuesday
Weds retail sales / manufacturing
Thurs unemployment claims
fri NFP earnings / unemployment rate
We also have Tokyo core CPI Mon — which last meeting came in above forecast.
I think I mentioned in premium posts— I was interested in potentially opening a swing in NKD, but I didn’t feel it in my bones, and thought we had potential to retest some lower downside support. (looks like I was right)
I will begin looking to enter some swing positions potentially. I’ll work on getting some research together for premium subscribers this week hopefully.
I will also be releasing a 2nd more in depth newsletter for paid subscribers looking at GC SI YM RTY and maybe some stocks. I feel like I been bored losing my mind waiting for this distribution to crack lol
also shout out chris and books, I saw they were crushing it last week
ES / SPY 0.00%↑
Looks like we finally broke this consolidation in the indexes.
If you look at this blue box on the left side, what we are missing is a clean excess low put in from this balance area.
Meaning there is potential liquidity below, where not all buyers were able to position themselves.
Again — if you didnt know, the main big bois that are in the market are banks, pension funds, retirement funds etc
They do not trade small time frames and usually use quantitative stuff to decide where to buy.
Dont think like a fish. Know where their pain points are, and dont fight the trend.
So this will obviously go one of two ways, we will either continue to see some downward selling pressure or we wont.
If we do and we rotate into these major downside support levels (which is why they are thicccc blue lines so you dont miss them) one of two things will occur
6204-5949
we will either bounce from them with a combination of dealers unwinding hedging/responsive buying/short covering
OR we could consolidate and form balance area down here. (of course we could keep selling off but that would be a bit extreme, but you never know)
Be prepared for more than one outcome, know where your levels are invalidated and dont fight the trend. Momentum and velocity of these moves will tell you where the market wants to go.
Dont fight it, let the market show you where it wants to go.
Moving averages / vwap here will probably be your friend.
When that momentum shifts you will see a significant MA crossover. It will blow right thru those VWAPs.
NQ / QQQ 0.00%↑
recap —
So we saw some consolidation for a bit before finally seeing that liquidity break. I had mentioned that the giant purple dashed line at 23963 had been tested and held during ETH but not yet tested during RTH
also you can see purple for me is a level that needs to hold, but not necessarily one i’m going to yolo in on a trade.
I had mentioned in prior analysis if this level for 23,963 in NQ does not hold it had potential for liquidations. Which is exactly what happened.
Now we are left with the question — how much lower can we go?
If you look at this blue box on the left side, what we are missing is a significant excess low put in from this balance area.
Meaning that we might have potential resting liquidity underneath still. Obviously this is all just speculation— right. As traders, were just trying to identify institutional positioning, and ride those waves.
Here I have 2 major levels with a region highlighted in between.
22,891 - 21,429
The reason it is highlighted is— if selling pressure increases, especially in NQ ATR will expand and theres no telling exactly where it will pivot. Which is why there is a giant box.
This is also a 1400 pt range.
there is more than one thing that can occur as we rotate into this zone, we could see a mean reversion, but we could ALSO consolidate down here. (and also could just blow thru and liquidate, no one knows)
You want to be prepared to see more than one scenario
Know what invalidates your trade thesis.
People want to kind of compare it to the april ‘25 sell off —
But looking at these distribution patterns they are no where near the same.
Thanks for reading SaltStack.
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