Weekly Market Outlook | ES NQ GC | 11.16.25 | NVDA Earnings
What a week! We have NVDA earnings this week, so we will see what is happening as we go into this week.
For new subscribers—
I use Fibonacci Sequences as the core of my analysis. I do implement both mechanical and contextual levels (from market profiles) in my analysis. I typically use mechanical levels to identify potential areas of support/distribution.
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Just a quick note—
I color code just so they are easier to read and understand, since there are alot levels with fibs.
Blue - potential discount zones (support levels)
Purple - zones I’m looking for price to defend, (line in the sand)
Red - premium zones (resistance / distribution zones)
Starting off with News this week
Looks like we have no major news prints Mon/Tues
Big news prints for the week are NFP and PMI Thursday / Friday.
We do have some feds on the mic Monday and Tuesday — sometimes that matters sometimes it doenst, just depends what they say.
Starting with ES
We can see here — with extended hours on — we did have a significant sell off down into some downside support.
As we sell off into these downside support levels we see a nasty short covering rally of about 100pts which is CRAZY
We rally into the next traditional short from that high.
» What I am monitoring for
As we rotate backup into these resistance levels, I will be monitoring for overhead supply at 6807 and 6844
As we can see those levels we do have more active participation (different color bars)
So these are the levels that I would be watching for sellers to reload / defend.
Break above 6844 — I would be watching as we retest 6900
» Looking at a higher time frame series
We are still currently inside of this higher time frame series.
We have downside support at 6599 and 6517
Upside targets above for this series at 7113
I think that failure to maintain above that 6400 level puts us in the ~danger zone~
Now we play the game of who gets exhausted first
Will bulls run out of steam? or…. Will sellers run out of inventory?
Where is the pain for shorts and longs — that is what you always want to ask yourself
Big players here are positioned long in the market — our retirement funds 401k etc. They are not sitting here trading smaller time frame sequences, they trade on higher timeframes.
Brief look at NQ
Looks like we did rotate into that downside support level.
Just a note — you will see there is a stark difference between the way ES and NQ look
NQ is more subject to gamma pinning and range compressions
Thats why you will see this tasty choppy price action with a very compressed range.
Without range expansion NQ sucks to trade IMO, lots of fake out and little follow thru sometimes.
Quick look at GC
We are coming out of that consolidation, and as we rotate up, we run into distribution / overhead supply.
Same logic applies here — Who will run out of steam first?
Gold is a physical commodity, it does not move the same as indices
The book is thinner and it willl whip around. You can get slipped VERY easy trading GC.
Supply / Demand zones will act as magnets, and it will respect them a little better than indices do.
We also have $NVDA earnings this week
So you can kind of see levels i’m looking at — and what where we are inside of structure.
I will most likely publish a separate article for NVDA before earnings potentially (likely tomorrow if I have time)
Anyways! Thats all I have going into the week, I will go ahead and publish some levels in the morning in the chat, otherwise goodnight you guys thanks for reading!