ES NQ GC BTC | Weekly Market Outlook | 11.30.25
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I use Fibonacci Sequences as the core of my analysis. I do implement both mechanical and contextual levels (from market profiles) in my analysis. I typically use mechanical levels to identify potential areas of support/distribution.
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Just a quick note—
I color code just so they are easier to read and understand, since there are alot levels with fibs.
Blue - potential discount zones (support levels)
Purple - zones I’m looking for price to defend, (line in the sand)
Red - premium zones (resistance / distribution zones)
Starting off with News this week
Looks like we have news prints Monday, Wednesday and Friday.
No news tuesday
Looks like we have CRWD 0.00%↑ CRM 0.00%↑ SNOW 0.00%↑ reporting. As well as some consumer discretionary like M 0.00%↑ FIVE 0.00%↑ TLS 0.00%↑ULTA 0.00%↑ VSCO 0.00%↑
Starting with ES
Here are the most recent sessions market profiles for ES
We had that liquidity break in the prior week followed by a very sharp short covering rally out of the low (I was coincidentally taking the prior week off lol so its really my first opportunity to review everything)
So coming out of that reversal, looks like we have some initiative buying coming in, and ES was just getting bid like crazy last week.
Looking at these combined profiles, we did just have a bit of thin structure to begin with going into that liquidity break.
Resulting in this more balanced profile. There is a divergence here between tPOC and vPOC. with some noticeable high volume regions.
It does seem to appear that we do have a lack of taper near the top — so there is a potential that we did not go high enough to clear out all the sellers.
As we rotate back up into this region, I would be monitoring for seller exhaustion/buyer exhaustion
If buyers continue to bid, then we will go onto complete upside targets.
ES levels
So here we can see we front run that 6522 during RTH (it actually trades during ETH) this sequence will target above at 7154
we have an extension series that starts out of that low that trades to its target 6867.
You can see here that we run into distribution as we approach that high during the globex open.
This is the next sequence I am looking for.
retest of downside support @ 6797-6781
holding above 6759
OR retest of lower downside support near 6740-6701
Maintaining above 6663
Brief look at NQ
Quick look at GC
We are coming out of that consolidation, and as we rotate up, we run into distribution / overhead supply.
Same logic applies here — Who will run out of steam first?
Gold is a physical commodity, it does not move the same as indices
The book is thinner and it willl whip around. You can get slipped VERY easy trading GC.
Supply / Demand zones will act as magnets, and it will respect them a little better than indices do.
I posted these levels on X quite a ways back, but Im monitoring for distribution as we retest these highs, but ultimately this higher time frame sequence will target 4608
BTC
We are currently holding this short sequence in $BTC we just traded into that next short, targets below 75k 57k and 43k
Looking at this higher time frame chart
I think BTC will see more liquidations if price does not maintain above and bid around 67-66k
If we do not maintain above 57k my final downside target is 43k
This sequence needs to break and hold ABOVE 98k to invalidate the current short sequence,
Doesnt seem to be catching bids as of now tho. Godspeed HODLers
Anyways! Thats all I have going into the week, I will go ahead and publish some levels in the morning in the chat, otherwise goodnight you guys thanks for reading!