ES Profiles + Positioning | 9.1.25
First post of September! Big week ahead of us. NFP is this week, with anticipation of rate cuts at the Fed meeting on 17th this month, this will likely be an important print.
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For those who are new, I use Fibonacci Sequences as the core of my analysis. I do implement both mechanical and contextual levels (from market profiles) in my analysis. I typically use mechanical levels to identify potential areas of support/distribution.
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Just a quick note — I am working on color coding just so they are easier to read and understand, the nature of fibs means that they come with an infinite number of mechanical levels, so I will highlight significant ones.
Blue - discount zones (support levels)
Purple - zones I’m looking for price to defend, (line in the sand, LIS)
Red - premium zones (resistance / distribution zones)
News for the week.
We do have some red folder news this week.
Wednesday we have JOLTS
Thursday we have unemployment claims
Friday Non Farm Payroll
Earnings for this week
Some earnings i’ve got my eye on
ZS 0.00%↑ and CRM 0.00%↑
for companies in this sector, it helps me get a good idea just the overall climate of how things are performing.
M 0.00%↑ FLWS 0.00%↑ LULU 0.00%↑
These are consumer discretionary companies, people cut spending in these areas when money is tight.
So I can get an idea comparing these earnings to the previous quarter, are people cutting non-essential spending more? or loosening up a bit.
I am curious to see how the automobile industry is performing as well.
Copart is more of a whole sale auto biz, so dealers will take the hit first as sales decline and inventory starts to pile up, then we should see the ripple affect on copart after.
Quick Recap of Last Week
ETH
RTH only
ES traded about an 80 point range last week— Nothing too crazy. We did put in a new ATH at 6523 on Thursday. Monday and Tuesday however, was a bit slow.
Reviewing the actual move leading into the ATH, we have some ATR expansion to the downside, followed by a slow grid up into the new ATH. It’s not a very convincing move.
Bulls run out of steam as they run into distribution at the highs. I’m sure I sound like a broken record at this point but — as we approach premium zones, we run into that potential for distribution.
Friday bulls fail to defend, and we have a bit of a liquidation, as price balances out near Fridays lows.
One thing I do notice about Fridays price action, we do have this ATR expansion down, to retest 6462.
I do like to note any things I notice that I consider an anomoly, here we have a spike in volume, above standard deviation, it is near the close so it could be the algos, but we have some volatility expansion in this bar as well.
Monday — The market is closed but futures were open, which was nothing exciting to call home about.
We can see here in the market profiles, Fridays price action from the Powell speech left some poor structure to clean up. There are still single prints below us, so be aware of that. Since there is virtually no volume in that zone, either price will reject it and bounce off of it, or it could just blow right thru it down to where previous value has been established.
One thing i’m noticing from the profiles is— even though we did have a classic b shaped liquidation Friday, you will see the POC is still above Tuesdays VPOC.
When you combine these all together, you are left with one giant nice looking profile. And if you look closely, there is value being built near the highs.
Going into this week
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/xpd3HxWJ/
» I am experimenting with something a little bit more interactive, so you can click this link and you will be able to see my charts with study on them, as well as the levels.
What i’m looking for going into the week
We do have a shortened week with Labor Day, so Tuesday I would expect a little bit of balancing/positioning going into JOLTS and NFP this week.
My LIS is 6474—
Im monitoring how price reacts as we approach 6490s area.
I think that we have the potential to run into some excess supply in this zone. Im watching for a break and hold above this level for a potential continuation higher. Monitoring for excess overhead supply at 6508 | 6523.
If we are able to blow thru the previous ATH, I would be monitoring for distribution at premium zone 6555 - 6566. In the “you never know” case scenario, I do have targets above at 6584.
If we are unable to hold above 6474—
there is still a potential to retest some lower support at 6440 | 6414. We do have single prints and poor structure that still needs to be cleaned up in this area leftover from the Powell speech.
In the event that we are unable to invalidate the current smaller time frame short sequence, and sellers pick up momentum,
i’m watching for break and hold below 6398, with downside targets at 6378 | 6320 | 6269
You’re probably going to want to keep an eye on the $VIX this week as well. You dont want to get caught with your pants down.
Levels
Line in the sand
6474
I think this will be my main LIS going into the week
6496
break above to invalidate short sequence
6398
break and hold below for lower downside targets
Upside Targets
6508 | 6527 | 6543 | 6566** | 6584**
Downside targets
6440 | 6414 | 6398 | 6378* | 6320*
*/** under extreme buying and selling pressure w volatility expansion.
Here is my levels and markup for $NQ —
i’m not going to do a full analysis maybe in the future.
Thanks for Reading! Hope this helps, trade safe!
Use caution and discretion when initiating trades, you’re going to want to use things like order flow or order flow derivatives (lags but better than nothing) to be able to react to what the market participants are doing in real time.